Sufficient Cause and Effect Reservation
I've been incredibly slack on my blog, I could say it's got to do with twitter becoming a more useful medium to me, however I'm not really sure, mostly because we as human's are fundamentally flawed in how we correlate Cause and Effect relationships.
There are however ways to break through this trap, and it's surprisingly simple, it does however take a shift of perception on how we view "reality".
Establish the Effect, this is the symptom that you know is there, if it wasn't there no cause-effect relationship could possibly be found. Let's say for example, that we have an effect of a sore throat.
So, I have a sore throat and I think it's due to the fact that I'm getting ill, because I stayed out in the cold last night. Great so we have a sequence of events, and a sequence of possible causes, and I've created meaning (which acts as the relationship between cause and effect).
1. Identify the assumptions in the above statement.
2. Do you agree or disagree with those assumptions?
3. What evidence do I have that they are valid?
4. What evidence do I have that they are false?
Ok, so...
1. The assumption is that is being out in the cold that made me sick.
2. I'm a little unsure of those assumptions because:
3. Although I do have a sore throat
4. The lozenges that I'm sucking arne't making it go away
The process of to rethink cause and effect relationships, in order to start looking at the real cause is very simple (in simple cause-effect systems, depending on the feedback of this post I will go into more complex detail at a later stage).
1. Question the existence of an entity
2. Question the existence of a relationship.
It is possible, that additional independent, equal or greater causes may exist (in this cause I had actually burnt my throat on a cup of coffee) or it may be a combination of defendant causes. Various modeling methods may be required before understand what the root cause of a symptom really is.
This post brought to you by my studying up on archetypes to solve theory of constraint problems.



RE: Sufficient Cause and Effect Reservation
May be time to do a Common Cause & Special Cause variation study or to go visit a doc!!! :-)
Hope you well now!
Cheers
CreativeWolf
http://creativewolf.wordpress.com